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uncertainty

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Episode 007 Certainty Merchants

"Our personal relationship with uncertainty is fundamental to being human, yet over the last 30 years we’ve begun outsourcing it to other people. You have a relationship to those big questions." Climate change, inequality, the rising cost of college tuition... all complex problems, but not complicated. Out of touch with the rhythms and interdependencies of our natural environment, we look to statistics and experts to help us make major decisions. Are we missing something? In Part 2 of our interview with Diego Espinosa, we learn from a former money manager about how our addiction to certainty over the last three decades has created a whole industry of specialists who make money using statistics to sell the promise of certainty and security--and it's making us more vulnerable. What happens when we stop listening to the the certainty merchants? Can we leverage our strongest social bonds to regain resilience in an uncertain universe? What can the complex patterns of the natural world teach us about ourselves?


Show Notes


Quotes from this episode:

"This is a very personal request that I'm making of people, to reestablish and re engage with uncertainty in their lives. Think about the fact that the future is uncertain. How do you feel about that? How does it make you feel?" - Diego Espinosa

"I think if we see ourselves as a little bit less special, a little bit more part of nature that we’ll naturally start to think about things in a complex systems way." - Diego Espinosa

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Episode 006 Information, Ants & Inequality

Most of us are unaware of how our actions lead to self-organizing behavior." In this episode we talk with Diego Espinosa, founder of the complexity based Sistema Research, about the way information travels in ant colonies, financial meltdowns, and human social networks--and the things these complex systems all have in common: feedback loops. In a complex world where we are bombarded with false signals about certainty, how can we regain resilience? 


Show Notes


Quotes from this episode:

"Preferential attachment is the tendency for certain nodes within a system that have a lot of connections already to make more connections." - Stacy Hale

"A self organizing system is basically a system in which order emerges from the different pieces following simple rules and interacting with each other and that order is kind not mystical, but kind of magical in a sense." - Diego Espinosa

"The way we wanted to hold on to the certainty was by essentially borrowing money." - Diego Espinosa

"Take back control of your personal relationship with uncertainty." - Diego Espinosa

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Episode 002 The F-Word Failure (And Feedback Loops)

When is screwing up beneficial? What can we learn from failure and its relationship with uncertainty and innovation? In this episode we toss around a few f-words to explore what happens when "noise" is part of the co-evolution of a system.


Show Notes


Quotes from this episode:

"When you want to design a system for adaptability you need to get good at something called Weak Signal Detection and that is at the first sign of something coalescing that's not going to be good, that's going to break the system. Catch it then integrate the feedback sooner rather than later rather than waiting for it to fall apart. You say oh okay, integrate the feedback sooner, so you look for those weak signals." - Stacy Hale 

"So you can start to see where there's coherence and adjust accordingly quicker feedback cycles. I'm just fascinated with kids and how they treat failure and how it relates to their sense of focus, cause they seem to understand and, it's not maybe conscious but, they understand that what they do is completely interrelated with the world around them in some ways. I don't know, or maybe they're just not concerned about it and that's why it works." - Stacy Hale

 

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